Rep. Brad Tabke, DFL-Shakopee, may be one step closer to securing his reelection after a trial concluded on December 17, 2024. Six of the twenty voters whose ballots went missing testified that they voted for Tabke. The trial centered on these missing absentee ballots, cast by Shakopee residents in mid-October in the House District 54A race. An election official likely discarded them around October 17th. Tabke’s opponent, Republican Aaron Paul, contested the results, as Tabke initially won by a mere 14 votes. The outcome is critical: a Tabke victory would leave the Minnesota House deadlocked at 67-67.
Tabke’s attorney, David Zoll, presented six voters who confirmed under oath they had voted for Tabke. Even if the remaining fourteen voters had voted for Paul, it wouldn’t overturn Tabke’s lead. “We had six folks testify under oath that they voted, in fact, for me, which makes it impossible for the result of this election to change,” Tabke stated. Further legal filings are expected next week, but Judge Tracy Perzel’s ruling isn’t anticipated before the New Year.
Judge Perzel’s decision holds significant power. Paul’s attorney, Reid LeBeau, is requesting a special election, arguing the missing ballots compromised the race’s integrity. While the authority to call a special election typically rests with the governor, LeBeau believes Perzel possesses that power in this instance. Perzel could affirm Tabke’s win, issue a report and defer the decision to the Legislature, or take other action.
University of Minnesota statistician Aaron Rendahl testified that the probability of Paul winning was extremely low, considering the precinct’s demographics. LeBeau challenged Rendahl’s analysis, highlighting his lack of election expertise and the potential difference in voter behavior between early and Election Day voting (all 20 ballots were early votes). LeBeau’s expert witness, University of Texas at Dallas political science professor Tom Brunell, also questioned Rendahl’s assumptions, though he conceded that if four or more of the missing ballots belonged to Tabke voters, Paul couldn’t win.
Legislative leaders are currently negotiating a power-sharing agreement for a deadlocked House, but the process is stalled pending the outcome of the 54A race. A separate lawsuit in House District 40B challenges the residency of Rep.-elect Curtis Johnson. Although a traditionally DFL district, a successful challenge could temporarily give Republicans control of the House. Paul did not attend the trial; Tabke was present both days.