Bitcoin (BTC) has been in a slight downward trend in recent days, although the price is still in an upward trend compared to mid-July.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is dropping back to that important 200-week moving average and the big question is whether the price will find support here or fall deeper. Meanwhile, market fears are rising again:

Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index is 31. Fear
Current price: $23,311 pic.twitter.com/7L9Pirvx5w

— Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index (@BitcoinFear) August 2, 2022

Bitcoin price drops by 2%

The bitcoin price has been falling since its peak around $24,600 last weekend. Yesterday the $23,000 still held and bitcoin even made a small reboundbut was subsequently turned down for around $23,500.

This surge followed again last night, but this morning bitcoin failed to hold above $23,000. At the time of writing, the BTC price drops to $22,800 on Coinbase and $22,300 on Bitvavo. Bitcoin is currently 2% in the minus and the price is currently testing the 200-WMA.

#Bitcoin is currently trading at $23k, within the 200-week moving average cloud.

200 EMA = $26.71K
200 SMA 🟡 = $22.87K

After acting as dynamic support throughout history, this is the first time that the 200 MA cloud could act as resistance. pic.twitter.com/qB8CSm50Vc

— Caleb Franzen (@CalebFranzen) August 1, 2022

The bitcoin battle with the 200-week moving average

As analyst Shayan points out below, it is bullish if the 200-WMA holds up. In its entire history, bitcoin has been below this price only 2% of the time and has never consolidated below it. However, if the price drops again, there is a good chance that bitcoin will fall deeper.

Is this a pullback or the price has broken the MA?!#Bitcoin has never dropped below the 200-week MA and consolidated. It has always initiated a #bullish cycle after reaching the important MA.

If the pullback is completed, we will experience another decline. pic.twitter.com/ebLlDTADJc

— Shayan.₿TC 📈📉 (@greatest_trader) August 2, 2022

Should bitcoin successfully retest this price, the price could probably shoot up quickly. That could potentially be towards $27,000 – $28,000, as analyst Kelly Kellam points out below. That doesn’t necessarily mean the end of the bear market, but it may well be the apex of this bear market rally. Kellam also provides a handy overview of some important indicators:

#Bitcoin currently in asymmetric risk/reward setup. #BTC currently has bear RSI divergence on the daily, expect a pull back, likely 200WMA retest at $22.7k.
MVRV, Reserve Risk & miner’s Puell multiple all point to a good buying op.
Next Bull hurdle at STH cost basis at $28k. pic.twitter.com/MisPRaalEQ

— KellyKellam (@Kellykellam) August 1, 2022

Bitcoins wake up after 8 years

However, a CryptoQuant analyst sees 1,100 BTC move for the first time in eight years. These come from an old miner. They haven’t been sent to an exchange yet, so they aren’t adding to the selling pressure just yet. But will that follow?

A retired miner moved 1,100 BTC that was dormant for 8 years!

Who sent these coins to where and why?

🔎 Wallet Investigation Report this weekhttps://t.co/zjTTjMyShC pic.twitter.com/kpPO0kvoQS

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) August 1, 2022

Crypto Insiders Premium for bitcoin analytics

Do you want to receive more in-depth bitcoin analyses? Then we would like to refer you to our Discord community for members. Ask analysts questions, chat with our fanatic community and receive daily technical and fundamental analysis of bitcoin, but also other crypto. Through Discord Premium we can share knowledge with each other 24/7 and we try to stay ahead of the market together with our members.

#Bitcoin 1 yr+ HODL wave 200-day rate of change peaks over 0.1

4 signals in 11 years. pic.twitter.com/G2MXLXAV4c

— TechDev (@TechDev_52) August 1, 2022

Disclaimer: Investing involves risks. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts’ own insights and experiences and are for educational purposes only.