President-elect Donald Trump’s promised mass deportations of immigrants are unlikely to significantly impact the nation’s housing crisis, according to many experts, contradicting claims made during his campaign. Several factors contribute to this: undocumented immigrants are more likely to reside in low-income rental housing rather than higher-income areas or own homes; they often live in multigenerational households; and they are a vital part of the construction industry, meaning their removal would hinder new home construction.
Despite this, Trump and others framed immigration as a major cause of the housing crisis. At a September rally in Arizona, Trump stated, “Immigration is driving housing costs through the roof.” Incoming Vice President J.D. Vance echoed this sentiment, claiming in an October debate that “illegal aliens competing with Americans for scarce homes is one of the most significant drivers of home prices in the country.” However, housing and immigration experts widely refute these claims.
The relationship between immigration and housing affordability is far more complex, experts argue. At best, immigration has a minimal impact on the crisis. At worst, mass deportations could severely damage the already strained construction industry, which heavily relies on low-wage undocumented workers. Riordan Frost, a senior research analyst with the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, notes that undocumented immigrants, unable to meet mortgage requirements, rely on affordable rental housing and often live in multigenerational households due to economic necessity. He also points out that millennials, not immigrants, have largely driven the increase in new households in recent years, particularly during the pandemic. Frost emphasizes, “It’s important to push back against the argument that housing for one group comes at the cost of another.”
Data from the Pew Research Center shows that in 2022, over 22 million people lived in households with at least one undocumented immigrant—approximately 6.3 million households, or 4.8% of the nation’s 130 million households. In 86% of these households, either the head of household or their spouse lacked legal authorization. Further, Frost highlights the coming demographic shift: an aging baby boomer generation and declining birth rates mean the U.S. will require immigration to maintain its population growth, as noted in a January Congressional Budget Office report.
While some, like Edward Pinto of the American Enterprise Institute, suggest that deportations could free up housing and lower costs, he acknowledges that this is not the sole solution, pointing to high land costs and ineffective affordable housing programs as additional contributing factors. Pinto notes that Trump’s deportation plan is a response to voter concerns, stating, “The voters have expressed support for deportation and repatriation,” though emphasizing a focus on those with criminal convictions.
Conversely, real estate brokers suggest deportations could negatively affect rental property owners, particularly in low-income communities. Jeff Lichtenstein, a Florida real estate owner, believes the impact would extend beyond low-cost rentals, potentially creating a domino effect that lowers prices across rental and home sale markets.
The construction industry’s heavy reliance on immigrant labor, including undocumented workers, is another critical consideration. Data from the National Association of Home Builders shows that immigrants constitute at least 40% of the construction workforce in California and Texas, and at least 30% in several other states. This reliance is particularly significant in specific trades. In disaster-prone areas, labor shortages could delay repairs and increase costs, as noted by immigration attorney Renata Castro. She states, “From roofers to plumbers, the demand for labor is insatiable…However, Americans refuse to fill these positions — jobs they do not want to do.”
In conclusion, while some argue that deportations might alleviate some housing pressures, the potential negative impacts on the construction industry and the broader housing market, along with the limited contribution of undocumented immigrants to the housing crisis itself, suggest that mass deportations would likely be a counterproductive approach.