## Minneapolis Homicide Rate Defies National Trend
Nationwide, the homicide rate plummeted in 2024, experiencing its fastest decline on record. According to provisional data analyzed by Jeff Asher, murders decreased by approximately 16% compared to 2023, bringing the rate back to pre-pandemic levels. This significant drop suggests a return to normalcy after years of elevated violence.
However, Minneapolis stands as a stark exception to this positive national trend. The city recorded 76 homicides in 2024, a slight increase from the 72 reported in 2023. This figure remains considerably higher than the 48 homicides recorded in 2019, representing a rate more than triple the national average. While Minneapolis’ homicide rate was only slightly above the national average in 2019, the 2024 figures highlight persistent public safety challenges within the city.
Several factors may contribute to Minneapolis’ anomalous situation. The murder of George Floyd by police in 2020 sparked widespread protests and civil unrest, exacerbating existing tensions between law enforcement and the communities they serve. This, in turn, may have contributed to an increase in violent crime, mirroring patterns observed in Ferguson and Baltimore following similar police-involved killings a decade earlier.
The impact of these events on Minneapolis may have been particularly acute. Following Floyd’s death, a significant number of police officers left the Minneapolis Police Department (MPD), often citing workers’ compensation claims or disability retirements. This resulted in a reduction of approximately 300 officers by 2023 compared to 2019. Furthermore, the city recently entered into a consent decree with the U.S. Department of Justice, mandating reforms following an investigation that uncovered years of unjustified police violence and significant racial disparities in enforcement.
Alternatively, some researchers attribute the recent rise in homicides to economic factors rather than solely policing issues. A Brookings Institution report, published last month, found a direct correlation between homicide increases in 2020 and local unemployment rates and school closures in low-income areas. The study concluded that cities experiencing higher rates of unemployment among young men and school absenteeism among teenagers in low-income neighborhoods saw greater increases in homicides later that year.
This connection between school closures and homicides is particularly relevant to Minneapolis, where over half of the school students are chronically absent, missing 10% or more of the school year. This absenteeism rate significantly surpasses the national average and is even higher among Black students. Compounding this issue, authorities have noted an alarming rise in serious crimes committed by younger teenagers and children. For example, a 10-year-old boy was charged with car theft in September. Among Minneapolis homicides where the offender’s age is known, approximately 10% are committed by individuals under 18, and roughly 40% by those under 24. The Brookings study emphasized the increased likelihood of violence among unemployed young men and out-of-school teenage boys.
By Christopher Ingraham, Minnesota Reformer, January 2, 2025
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