Nationwide, the homicide rate plummeted in 2024, according to provisional data from analyst Jeff Asher. His analysis shows a decrease of approximately 16% compared to 2023, the fastest decline on record. This suggests a return to pre-pandemic levels, marking a significant improvement after years of elevated rates.
However, Minneapolis stands as a stark exception. Preliminary data indicates 76 homicides in 2024, a slight increase from the 72 recorded in 2023. This figure remains significantly higher than the 48 homicides in 2019. While Minneapolis’s homicide rate was only slightly above the national average in 2019, last year’s rate was more than triple the national level, highlighting persistent public safety challenges within the city.
Several factors likely contribute to Minneapolis’s unique situation. The murder of George Floyd by police sparked widespread protests and civil unrest, leading to strained relationships between law enforcement and the communities they serve. This, in turn, may have contributed to increases in violent crime, a pattern observed in other cities following similar events in Ferguson and Baltimore.
In Minneapolis, the aftermath of Floyd’s murder resulted in a significant loss of police officers – approximately 300 fewer in 2023 than in 2019 – due to departures, often citing workers’ compensation claims or disability retirements. Furthermore, the city recently entered into a consent decree with the U.S. Department of Justice, mandating reforms following an investigation that uncovered years of unjustified police violence and significant racial disparities in enforcement.
Conversely, some researchers attribute the homicide spike to economic factors rather than policing issues. A Brookings Institution report from last month linked the 2020 increase in homicides to “local unemployment and school closures in low-income areas.” The study found that cities experiencing higher rates of unemployment among young men and school absenteeism among teenagers in low-income neighborhoods saw larger increases in homicides later that year.
This correlation between school closures and homicides may be particularly relevant in Minneapolis, where over half of the school students are chronically absent (missing 10% or more of the school year). This absenteeism rate is significantly above the national average, with even higher rates among Black students. Furthermore, authorities have expressed concern about a rise in serious crimes committed by younger individuals. For example, a 10-year-old boy was charged with car theft in September. Among Minneapolis homicides where the offender’s age is known, approximately 10% are committed by individuals under 18, and roughly 40% by those under 24. The Brookings study concluded that “teen boys who are not in school and young men who are unemployed are much more likely to engage in violence than other neighborhood residents.”
By Christopher Ingraham, Minnesota Reformer, January 2, 2025