## Oscar Race 2025: Top Contenders and Hopefuls
A new year heralds a new awards season, building to a fever pitch. The Oscars buzz has been simmering for months and is about to explode. The Golden Globes, having weathered recent controversies, kick off the televised awards season this Sunday. They’re swiftly followed by the Critics Choice Awards, then a flurry of others: SAGs, PGAs, DGAs, BAFTAs, all culminating in the ultimate prize on March 2nd, 2025. This year’s race is particularly wide open, making predictions challenging but all the more exciting.
This list presents 20 films likely to contend for Best Picture nominations, ranked by perceived likelihood. However, each film’s potential extends beyond Best Picture, with strong contenders in other categories.
The Presumed Frontrunners
Unlike last year’s clear frontrunner, *Oppenheimer*, 2025’s Best Picture race is remarkably open. *The Brutalist*, Brady Corbet’s epic, is a likely frontrunner. Clocking in at three and a half hours, this A24 production boasts old-fashioned Hollywood grandeur on a surprisingly modest budget, achieved through filming in Hungary. The story of a Jewish American immigrant architect rebuilding his life after the Holocaust resonates with themes that could appeal to the Academy. However, the film’s bleak and cynical portrayal of American assimilation might alienate some voters. Despite this, Adrien Brody is a strong contender for Best Actor, Corbet for Best Director, and Guy Pearce and Felicity Jones could earn supporting actor/actress nods. The film also has strong potential in cinematography and film editing.
While *The Brutalist* leads, *Conclave*, a political thriller set during a papal election, possesses significant momentum. Directed by Edward Berger and starring Ralph Fiennes as a priest grappling with doubt, *Conclave* offers a compelling blend of faith and power, reflecting contemporary political struggles. Its crowd-pleasing nature and timely themes—especially appealing post-election—could make it a consensus second or third choice, potentially securing a Best Picture win via preferential voting. Fiennes is a strong competitor for Best Actor, the adapted screenplay is a shoo-in, and Isabella Rossellini and Stanley Tucci could earn supporting role nominations. Technical nominations in cinematography and production design are also highly probable.
Bold Contenders
*Emilia Pérez*, a daring musical about a transitioning Mexican drug cartel leader, is sure to spark conversation. Though it may alienate some online viewers, its originality and emotional depth could win over older, more traditional audiences. The film’s Cannes success, including the Jury Prize and Best Actress for Karla Sofía Gascón, bodes well. However, its Netflix release and potential accusations of insufficient progressiveness pose challenges. Gascón is a strong Best Actress candidate, and Zoe Saldana’s performance, although co-lead, is likely to earn a Best Supporting Actress nomination. Jacques Audiard should receive a Best Director and Adapted Screenplay nomination, with Original Song nominations highly likely.
*Anora*, winner of the Palme d’Or at Cannes, is a frank exploration of a sex worker’s life, blending character study with screwball comedy. While its subject matter might prove challenging for some Academy voters, Mikey Madison’s powerful lead performance is a major asset. Madison is a frontrunner for Best Actress, and Sean Baker could win Best Director. The film is also likely to compete for Best Original Screenplay.
*Wicked*, a massive box office hit, raises the question of whether the Academy will reward a widely seen film. While it contrasts sharply with last year’s *Oppenheimer*, its earnestness and potent political subtext could resonate. Cynthia Erivo is a strong contender for Best Actress, and Ariana Grande for Best Supporting Actress. The film is also positioned for technical awards in hair and makeup, costumes, and production design.
Strong Possibilities
*Dune: Part Two*, while highly regarded, faces an uphill battle against *Wicked*’s populist momentum. Though likely nominated for Best Picture, its chances for Best Director (Denis Villeneuve) are less certain. Timothée Chalamet may earn a nomination for another film, despite his excellent performance. Technical awards in film editing, production design, costumes, cinematography, and visual effects are anticipated.
*A Boy Named Dylan*, despite some criticism regarding its formulaic aspects, is well-received and commercially successful. Its celebration of a Boomer icon and crowd-pleasing nature should secure a Best Picture nomination, and potentially Best Adapted Screenplay. Timothée Chalamet is likely to earn another Best Actor nomination, and Monica Barbaro has a strong chance in Best Supporting Actress.
*A Real Pain*, a poignant dramedy, features quiet character work likely to appeal to Academy voters. Its accessibility and emotional depth should earn it a Best Picture nomination. Jesse Eisenberg’s direction and writing should result in a Best Supporting Actor nod for Kieran Culkin and competition for Best Original Screenplay.
*September 5*, a thriller set during the 1972 Munich Olympics hostage crisis, is a sharply effective and ethically-challenging film. It’s likely to secure nominations for Best Picture, Best Original Screenplay, and possibly Best Film Editing.
The Bubble
*Sing Sing*, a tribute to the resilience of the human spirit, features a powerful performance by Colman Domingo, who is a strong contender for Best Actor. Clarence Maclin may also receive a Supporting Actor nomination.
*The Substance*, a body horror satire, is a critical darling but might struggle to gain traction in the Best Picture race due to its genre. However, Coralie Fargeat is likely to be nominated for Best Original Screenplay, and Demi Moore and Margaret Qualley have outside chances in their respective acting categories. It is a frontrunner for Best Makeup and Hairstyling.
*Nickel Boys*, a groundbreaking cinematic achievement, tackles race and perception with innovative techniques. While potentially nominated for Best Picture and Best Director, it might just miss out. Nominations for Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Cinematography are anticipated.
*The Seed of the Sacred Fig*, a political thriller set in Tehran, is a frontrunner for Best International Film and has an outside chance for Best Original Screenplay.
Long Shots
*Gladiator II*, despite its commercial success and Denzel Washington’s likely supporting actor nomination, is generally considered a step down from the original. It is also likely to earn production design, costume, and visual effects nominations.
*Nosferatu*, a commercially successful horror film, may struggle to overcome Academy biases against the genre. Technical nominations in costume design, production design, makeup and hairstyling, sound, and cinematography are expected.
*Maria*, a biographical film about Maria Callas, is unlikely to receive a Best Picture nomination but might secure a Best Actress nomination for Angelina Jolie and nominations for costume design and cinematography.
*Challengers*, a crowd-pleasing drama, is surprisingly absent from the main conversation, indicating a shift in Academy preferences. Potential nominations include Best Film Editing, Best Score, and possibly Best Original Screenplay.
*Hard Truths*, a character study featuring a strong performance by Marianne Jean-Baptiste, is on the bubble for Best Actress and Best Original Screenplay.
*The Family Jewels*, while featuring a strong Nicole Kidman performance, is likely to only secure a nomination for Kidman in Best Actress.
*The Last Movie*, featuring a notable Daniel Craig performance, might only earn Craig a Best Actor nomination.
This year’s Oscar race is exceptionally unpredictable. While some films stand out as frontrunners, the relative lack of a clear favorite ensures a thrilling and potentially surprising awards season.