The agricultural industry’s heavy reliance on immigrant labor is facing a potential crisis. As of 2020, one estimate indicated that over 40% of crop farmworkers were undocumented immigrants. If President-elect Donald Trump follows through on his deportation pledge, the economies of states with significant farming and food-related industries could be severely disrupted, particularly given existing labor shortages.
The U.S. Department of Labor reports that immigrants comprise approximately two-thirds of the nation’s crop farmworkers, with about 40% lacking legal authorization to work in the United States. This reliance on immigrant labor extends beyond crop farming to meatpacking, dairy, poultry, and livestock industries. Bruce Lampman, owner of Lampman Dairy Farm in Idaho, exemplifies this dependence, stating, “We have five to six employees that do the work that nobody else will do. We wouldn’t survive without them.” He further emphasized the crippling effect mass deportations would have on his business and the entire U.S. agricultural sector.
Anita Alves Pena, a Colorado State University economics professor specializing in immigration, highlights the pre-existing labor shortages in agriculture. She argues that without mitigating measures like farm subsidies, the economic consequences of deportations would be substantial, exacerbating the current labor crisis. The low wages and arduous nature of farm work contribute to the difficulty in recruiting domestic workers.
In addition to undocumented workers, the agricultural sector utilizes the H-2A visa program for seasonal labor. While this program provides a legal pathway, it’s limited to seasonal work (typically six to ten months, extendable to three years), leaving year-round operations like dairy and poultry farming without sufficient support. The soaring demand for H-2A visas, increasing from just over 48,000 in 2005 to over 378,000 in 2023, reflects the growing inadequacy of the domestic workforce.
Further complicating the situation is the employment of foreign nationals with Temporary Protected Status (TPS). Around 1.2 million individuals benefit from this program, many having resided in the U.S. for decades. Trump’s threat to end TPS adds another layer of uncertainty to the already precarious labor situation.
Various stakeholders are advocating for solutions. Immigration advocates seek permanent legal status for H-2A workers, while agricultural organizations push for an expansion of the H-2A program to accommodate year-round needs. The National Milk Producers Federation, emphasizing that immigrants constitute 51% of dairy farm labor and that immigrant-employing farms produce nearly 80% of the nation’s milk, stresses the importance of agricultural labor reform providing permanent legal status and a workable guest worker program.
Industry leaders echo these concerns. Adam Croissant, formerly of Chobani, bluntly states the dairy industry’s complete dependence on immigrant labor. Tom Super of the National Chicken Council criticizes the broken U.S. immigration system, emphasizing the poultry industry’s need for a stable, legal, and permanent workforce.
However, significant changes to the H-2A program are unlikely before potential deportations begin. Trump’s reiteration of his immediate deportation plans, starting with criminals and then expanding to others, raises serious concerns.
While some farmers remain hopeful that Trump’s actions won’t match his rhetoric, experts caution against complacency. Rick Naerebout of the Idaho Dairymen’s Association warns that mass deportations would severely jeopardize the nation’s food security. Experts predict that the H-2A program cannot quickly compensate for the loss of workers, and the fear of deportation alone could cause a significant exodus of workers, both documented and undocumented. Jeffrey Dorfman, a professor of agricultural economics, points out the disruption caused by even the fear of ICE raids, with workers disappearing, regardless of their legal status.
Antonio De Loera-Brust of the United Farm Workers union argues for a focus on protecting farmworkers’ rights, including fair wages and citizenship, rather than solely on preventing deportation. He criticizes the focus on potential price increases for consumers as a morally deficient response to a humanitarian crisis. The potential consequences of mass deportations extend far beyond economic impacts, highlighting the urgent need for comprehensive immigration reform.