The Golden Globes offered critical insights into the emerging frontrunners of this year’s awards season, a race characterized by a lack of clear early favorites. Demi Moore’s win for Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy Feature for her role in “The Substance” marks a significant shift. This victory over strong contenders like Mikey Madison (“Anora”), Karla Sofía Gascón (“Emilia Pérez”), and Cynthia Erivo (“Wicked”) propels Moore to the forefront of the Best Actress race, just as Oscar ballots are being distributed. Her heartfelt acceptance speech, celebrating her career longevity, generated considerable goodwill—a factor that has proven influential in past tight races, as seen with Michelle Yeoh’s win for “Everything Everywhere All at Once.”
Beyond Moore’s triumph, Fernanda Torres’ surprise win for Best Actress in a Drama for the Portuguese-language film “I’m Still Here” was another key moment. This win, coming three decades after her mother Fernanda Montenegro’s nomination for “Central Station,” represents a considerable achievement for Torres, given the challenges international actors face in securing Oscar recognition. Despite this win, the Best Actress race remains highly competitive, with several Golden Globe nominees—Moore, Erivo, Madison, and Gascón—currently ranking highly in various prediction aggregators like Gold Derby. However, historical precedent suggests the emergence of unexpected contenders. Only three times have three Golden Globe comedy/musical nominees progressed to the Oscar Best Actress lineup. Notable examples include 2005 (Dench, Knightley, and Witherspoon) and 1964 (Andrews, Loren, and Reynolds). The possibility of four nominees breaking this precedent adds intrigue to the race.
On the male side, Sebastian Stan’s Golden Globe win for Best Actor in a Musical or Comedy Feature in “A Different Man” positions him strongly for an Oscar nomination. However, his nomination for Best Actor in a Drama for “The Apprentice” might complicate matters, potentially splitting his votes. His inclusion on the BAFTA longlist offers a significant boost. If he can consolidate support and surpass competitors such as Daniel Craig (“Queer”), he stands a good chance at an Oscar nomination.
In the drama category, Brady Corbet’s “The Brutalist” dominated, securing wins for Best Picture (Drama), Best Director, and Best Actor (Adrien Brody). The film’s success at the Globes, triumphing over established films like “A Complete Unknown” and “Conclave,” signals its growing momentum. However, historical data indicates that only a small percentage of Golden Globe Best Picture (Drama) winners go on to win the Oscar. This suggests “Conclave,” the screenplay winner, could be a significant contender for Best Picture, potentially marking a first win in that category for Focus Features.
Netflix’s hopes for a long-sought Best Picture Oscar may lie with Jacques Audiard’s “Emilia Pérez.” The film’s four Golden Globe wins—Best Picture (Comedy/Musical), Supporting Actress (Zoe Saldaña), International Feature, and Original Song—are a substantial achievement. This, coupled with its representation of France in the International Feature category at the Oscars, could lead to France’s first win in over 30 years.
In the animated feature category, the silent film “Flow” unexpectedly defeated major contenders like “Inside Out 2” and “The Wild Robot.” This win strengthens its position for the Critics Choice Awards and increases its chances of an Oscar nomination for International Feature, representing Latvia.
Despite its single win for cinematic and box office achievement, Universal’s “Wicked” fell short in major categories. While Neon’s “Anora” went home empty-handed, it remains a contender. The Golden Globes highlighted the unpredictable nature of the awards season, with several films gaining momentum while others face statistical headwinds. The historical inconsistencies between Golden Globe and Oscar winners, such as the disparity between “The Banshees of Inisherin” and “Everything Everywhere All at Once” in 2022, underscore the uncertainty that persists.