Oscars 2025: Top Contenders

The new year brings with it the electrifying energy of awards season, culminating in the 2025 Oscars. While it’s still early to definitively predict winners, several films have emerged as strong contenders, sparking intense buzz amongst voters, critics, and hopeful nominees alike. The Golden Globes kick off the televised festivities, followed closely by the Critics Choice Awards and the subsequent flurry of SAGs, PGAs, DGAs, and BAFTAs, all building towards the ultimate prize on March 2nd, 2025. This list presents twenty films vying for Oscar gold, ranked by their perceived likelihood of a Best Picture nomination. Note that while the top films are considered frontrunners, many have strong chances in other categories.

Unlike last year’s clear frontrunner, *Oppenheimer*, the 2025 Best Picture race is remarkably open, reminiscent of the 2022 race won by *CODA*. Leading the pack is Brady Corbet’s *The Brutalist*, a three-and-a-half-hour epic. Shot on a surprisingly modest budget in Hungary, the film boasts a classic Hollywood grandeur and tells the story of a Jewish American immigrant architect rebuilding his life after the Holocaust. While its scale and subject matter might resonate with the Academy, its bleak and cynical portrayal of American assimilation could prove a drawback. Despite this, *The Brutalist* is already a Best Picture winner with the New York Film Critics Circle, suggesting critical acclaim. Adrien Brody is a strong contender for Best Actor, while Corbet and Guy Pearce have excellent chances for Best Director and Best Supporting Actor, respectively. The film is also likely to receive nominations for Best Cinematography and Film Editing.

However, *Conclave*, a politically charged thriller set during a papal election, possesses the narrative momentum to potentially upset *The Brutalist*. This conventional yet engaging drama, directed by Edward Berger and starring Ralph Fiennes, explores themes of faith and power, mirroring contemporary political struggles. Its crowd-pleasing nature and timely relevance—particularly after a contentious election—could make it a popular second or third choice, crucial in the preferential ballot system. Ralph Fiennes and the film’s adaptation are expected to contend for Best Actor and Best Adapted Screenplay, respectively, with further nominations anticipated for Isabella Rossellini (Best Supporting Actress), Stanley Tucci (Best Supporting Actor), cinematography, and production design.

Next, Emilia Pérez’s daring musical about a transgender Mexican drug cartel leader, while controversial on social media, is a unique and emotionally resonant film likely to appeal to a mature audience. The film’s Cannes success, including the Jury Prize and Best Actress awards, bodes well for its Oscar chances. Despite its Netflix release and potential criticisms regarding progressive representation, its audacity and sentimentality could secure a Best Picture nomination, alongside likely nods for Karla Sofía Gascón (Best Actress), Zoe Saldana (Best Supporting Actress), Jacques Audiard (Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay), and Original Songs.

*Anora*, winner of the Palme d’Or at Cannes, presents a frank exploration of a sex worker’s life, cleverly blending character study with screwball comedy. While its subject matter might alienate some Academy voters, Mikey Madison’s powerful performance as Anora Mikheeva positions her as a strong contender for Best Actress. Director Sean Baker could also receive a Best Director nomination, and the film is likely to compete for Best Original Screenplay.

Unexpectedly, Jon M. Chu’s *Wicked* emerges as a populist frontrunner, breaking box office records and raising the question of whether the Academy will reward a widely seen blockbuster. While different from last year’s *Oppenheimer*, its earnestness, its political undertones, and Cynthia Erivo’s powerful performance make it a serious Best Picture contender. Ariana Grande is also poised for a Best Supporting Actress nomination, and the film is set to receive numerous technical nominations.

Despite the success of *Dune: Part Two*, its momentum is overshadowed by *Wicked*. While almost certainly nominated for Best Picture, its chances are diminished by recency bias and a perceived limit on the number of blockbusters considered for the top prize. However, the film is likely to earn recognition in various technical categories.

James Mangold’s *Bob Dylan* biopic, though formulaic to some critics, is a well-received crowd-pleaser likely to earn nominations for Best Picture, Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best Actor (Timothée Chalamet). Monica Barbaro also has a decent shot at a Best Supporting Actress nomination.

*A Real Pain*, a poignant dramedy, is a sophisticated character study that could secure a Best Picture nomination, alongside potential wins for Kieran Culkin (Best Supporting Actor) and Jesse Eisenberg (Best Original Screenplay).

Tim Fehlbaum’s *September 5*, a gripping thriller set during the 1972 Munich Olympics, is a technically proficient film likely to garner nominations for Best Picture, Best Original Screenplay, and Best Film Editing.

*Sing Sing*, a powerful tribute to the resilience of the human spirit, is a strong contender for Best Picture, with Colman Domingo almost guaranteed a Best Actor nomination.

Coralie Fargeat’s *The Substance*, a darkly comedic body horror film, is a critical darling but faces an uphill battle due to the genre. However, it’s likely to receive nominations for Best Original Screenplay and Best Makeup and Hairstyling.

RaMell Ross’ *Nickel Boys*, a groundbreaking masterpiece exploring race and perception, is a potential contender for Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Adapted Screenplay.

Mohammad Rasoulof’s *The Seed of the Sacred Fig*, a gripping political thriller, is a strong contender for Best International Film and Best Original Screenplay.

*Gladiator II*, while a solid hit, is generally considered less impactful than its predecessor. However, Denzel Washington is likely to receive a Best Supporting Actor nomination. The film will also likely be nominated for various technical awards.

Robert Eggers’ *Nosferatu*, despite being a critical and commercial success, might only receive technical nominations due to the Academy’s historical bias against horror films.

Pablo Larraín’s *Maria*, a biographical film about Maria Callas, has a slim chance of a Best Picture nomination but Angelina Jolie is a potential Best Actress nominee.

*Challengers*, a crowd-pleasing drama, is surprisingly absent from the main conversation, likely only receiving technical nominations.

Mike Leigh’s *Hard Truths* features a powerful performance from Marianne Jean-Baptiste, making her a potential Best Actress nominee, while the film itself could receive a Best Original Screenplay nomination.

Halina Reijn’s erotic thriller features a strong performance from Nicole Kidman, possibly earning her a Best Actress nomination.

Luca Guadagnino’s *[Untitled William S. Burroughs Adaptation]*, while unlikely to win Best Picture, features a strong performance from Daniel Craig, who could earn a Best Actor nomination.

This overview provides a comprehensive look at the diverse landscape of potential 2025 Oscar contenders. The race remains highly competitive, with many films vying for recognition in multiple categories. The final results will depend on various factors including critical reception, box office success, and the ever-unpredictable preferences of the Academy voters.